AGP Executive Report

Ice Cream Shift in India: Kwality Walls is moving its full India portfolio to milk-based ice creams, with about half dairy-based this year and the rest by next year, as consumers increasingly favor dairy over palm-based “frozen desserts.” Food Prices Under Pressure: Tomatoes are up 40% in the US year over year, driven by crop yield swings plus higher shipping costs from the Iran war and tariffs on Mexican tomatoes—hitting restaurant operators’ budgets hard. Grain Storage Scrutiny (India): An investigation into India’s foodgrain silo “hub and spoke” modernization says an anti-monopoly safeguard was removed before contracts, with Adani-linked firms reportedly expanding their share. Dairy Ingredient Boom (Ireland): Irish exporters are positioned to benefit from a sharp rise in whey protein isolate prices, boosted by sports nutrition and GLP-1-driven demand for high-protein powders. Supply Chain Stress (India): The West Asia crisis is described as an energy-driven shock that raises fuel, fertilizer and freight costs, threatening food security—especially for women, youth and farmers. Retail Fresh Focus (South Africa): Pick n Pay is refocusing on fresh food as its top growth driver, while also rebuilding baby, beauty and pet ranges using its existing store network. Food Safety/Operations Watch: A Longview, Washington-area packaging plant faced a major tank rupture and chemical spill, raising questions about production and shipments.

Sustainable Protein R&D: Imperial’s White City Campus opened labs for the Bezos Centre for Sustainable Protein, aiming to make sustainable proteins cheaper and scalable, with a Microbial Food Hub to push fermentation and microbial approaches. Dairy & Farm Economy: Wisconsin kicked off June Dairy Month, spotlighting the state’s 1.3M dairy cows, 5,000 farms, and dairy’s $52.8B annual economic impact. Beef Pricing Pressure: Ireland’s beef sector faced fresh scrutiny after claims of “huge price-gouging,” with processors and retailers accused of widening gaps versus what farmers receive. Food Processing Infrastructure: Odisha’s BJD MP urged India’s food processing ministry to build a national mega food park in Koraput to unlock tribal agri value-addition. Pork Import Policy: The Philippines will consult hog raisers after raising pork import minimum access volume, aiming to balance consumer prices with local producer viability. Food Costs Watch: US tomato prices jumped ~40% year-on-year, blamed on war-linked logistics costs and tariff policy shifts. Food Safety/Industry Risk: A Kentucky caramel-color plant explosion was labeled “catastrophe waiting to happen” after safety and design missteps. Retail Supply Chain: Lidl’s 10th-year Kickstart program selected Irish suppliers Nua Naturals and iStil 38 for a September retail push.

Food Shock Watch: South Africa’s Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 25 bps, warning of a possible “food shock” as higher borrowing costs hit household spending while farmers already face rising fuel and input costs. El Niño & Fertiliser Strain: Myanmar rice growers say the Iran-linked fuel and fertiliser squeeze is making planting harder and more expensive, with El Niño risks adding pressure to already fragile harvest prospects. Trade & Supply Disruptions: With Strait of Hormuz tensions still in play, negotiators discussed extending a ceasefire and reopening modalities—an oil-route risk that can quickly translate into higher food and energy prices. Regulatory Push in Produce: Sri Lanka tightened agricultural export controls after EU regulators flagged excessive pesticide residues, requiring SL-GAP certification and authorised exporters for EU-bound fruits and vegetables. Dairy Expansion: Sri Lanka’s Pelwatte Dairy will invest Rs. 1.86bn to build a liquid milk plant, targeting flavoured milk and iced coffee-style beverages from 2027. Packaged Foods Deal: India’s AWL Agri Business licensed Shree Renuka Sugars’ “Madhur” brand to expand refined sugar sales via AWL’s distribution network. Cultivated Protein Enters DC: José Andrés’ Barmini will start serving Wildtype cultivated salmon in Washington, DC from June 3, as cultivated meat faces growing consumer and regulatory debate. Hospitality VAT Relief: The UK’s “Great British Summer Savings” cuts VAT on some children’s menus and family activities to 5% for summer, aiming to lift restaurant footfall. Food Safety Training: Penn State Extension is running ServSafe food safety manager courses in June for restaurant and food service managers. Eid Retail Boost (Qatar): Qatar expects a strong Eid Al Adha lift for groceries and hospitality-linked retail as footfall rises ahead of the holiday.

Ocean Economy & Governance: A new look at the “blue economy” says ocean activity has surged, but governance is fragmented, leaving food and livelihoods exposed when enforcement, safety, and environmental tracking don’t connect. Urban Data & Policy: India’s urban measurement systems are criticized for patchy, outdated, and uneven data, which can skew resilience funding and what gets prioritized. Nigeria Fuel Pricing: Dangote Petroleum cut diesel ex-depot prices to N1,600/litre from N1,800 as imported fuel arrivals intensify competition across the downstream chain. Ag Finance Fight: A civil society coalition at AfDB meetings urged a shift away from industrial factory farming toward community-led agroecology. Food & Nutrition Campaigns: Nigeria launched a “Choose Milk” push to help families distinguish real milk from creamers. EU Trade Pressure: EU commissioners are set to discuss possible restrictions on Chinese imports amid “China Shock 2.0” concerns, including in food-related categories. Inflation Hits Food Budgets: South Africa’s central bank raised rates to 7% as fuel and food costs feed inflation. Reformulation Demand: ADM highlighted fast-moving reformulation needs, investing to expand its North America innovation capacity. Retail/Restaurant Reality: UK fast-casual chain Leon exited administration after closing 23 sites, leaving 43 restaurants. Food Safety & Consumer Trust: A Slim Tide alert warns of unauthorized third-party sellers using deceptive marketing. Agriculture Risk: The Philippines warned El Niño could cut rice output by up to 700,000 MT, raising food security stakes.

Agri-innovation Link-Up: AgSphere and EIT Food are teaming up to connect Canadian agri-food start-ups with Europe’s networks, buyers and investment, starting with a Canadian delegation to EIT Food’s Next Bite in Warsaw. Regenerative Push: A coalition of 40 food and agriculture firms backed the SAI Platform’s Regenerating Together Programme, aiming to scale regenerative practices across ingredient supply chains with shared impact targets. Menu Meets Market Reality: Mad Greens is overhauling 80% of its menu with 20 new craveable, “better-for-you” items, signaling that health claims alone aren’t enough in fast casual. Trade Talks With Food Stakes: India and Canada reaffirm a USD 50B trade goal and push CEPA talks in Toronto, with business leaders focused on sector cooperation. Food Price Pressure: U.S. grocery inflation risks intensifying as El Niño and Iran-linked disruptions add to already rising costs. Food Safety & Compliance: The FDA added thousands of Philips interventional imaging systems to recall lists over tube-cooler cooling issues that can trigger low-dose modes. Labor Tension in Cocoa: Kakao union-management talks collapsed, setting up a potential first-ever strike over wages and bonus structures.

Humanitarian Logistics: Brazil’s Air Force will fly food supplies from Santa Cruz de la Sierra to La Paz to ease shortages from Bolivia’s three-week roadblocks, coordinated by Brazil’s foreign affairs and agrarian ministries. Agri-Policy & Value Chains: India’s DoNER minister launched Tripura’s “Mission Queen Pineapple” to push GI-tagged fruit from farming through processing, branding and exports. Affordability Pressure: South Africa’s SARB rate decision looms as households already face rising inflation and may struggle with higher food and living costs. Food Safety in Schools: South Africa is urged to tighten safeguards in school nutrition, citing hygiene, storage and monitoring gaps that could spread contamination. EU Regulation Update: EU member states agreed on “Omnibus X” to simplify pesticide rules and enable more drone-based targeted spraying while keeping food and feed safety standards. Retail & Dining Shakeups: Clover Food Lab will close all 11 Boston-area restaurants, blaming inflation and thin margins. Circular Economy in Food: Canada’s Protein Industries Canada backs a project turning brewers’ spent grain into new high-value ingredients via Terra and Great Western Brewing. Trade & Industry: Thailand’s THAIFEX-ANUGA ASIA opened with a focus on emerging brands and alternative proteins, aiming for major trade value.

Food Safety Recall: Morrisons pulled Savers Cashews after fears packets may contain glass, issuing a customer recall for specific best-before dates and urging refunds. Nutrition & Standards: Egg Farmers of Canada rolled out its Egg Quality Assurance mark in McDonald’s Canada ads, pushing tighter quality signals into mainstream menus. Livestock Research: Ontario opened a $15.5M beef research centre at the University of Guelph to boost health, welfare and productivity for beef farms. Packaging Push: Food & Consumer Products of Canada endorsed the Ellen MacArthur Foundation’s “New Plastics Economy,” aiming to cut plastic waste without raising safety or costs. Agriculture Under Pressure: A CSIRO-backed South East Queensland food system strategy calls for coordinated planning to protect supply chains as climate volatility and population growth intensify. Market Demand Signals: India’s health-food brand Alpino hit Rs 100cr revenue, betting on clean-label, high-protein growth. Soft Power via Food: Malaysia’s culinary diversity is being pitched as a tool for tourism and talent development.

Fuel-and-food squeeze: BDO Unibank warns the Middle East conflict could keep pushing up oil, inflation, rates, and a weaker peso in the Philippines—raising transport and food costs. Policy pressure on staples: The Philippine Competition Commission told rice importers to stop sharing sensitive info while a P50/kg import price cap runs for 30 days. FDA food safety alert: USDA FSIS issued a public health warning for beef kofta at The Kebab Shop after an E. coli O157:H7 outbreak link; the chain pulled the item from menus. Biopharma pivot: Eli Lilly is buying three vaccine developers for up to nearly $4B, signaling a bigger push into infectious disease. Agri investment push: Kenya plans Ksh100B in green/climate bonds by 2027 to fund solar cold chains and regenerative farming. Tech meets farming: Oregon’s Canopii is pitching “franchiseable” robotic greens farms to tackle aging farm labor. Retail inflation watch: Loblaw’s report ties higher food prices to gasoline and seasonal pressures.

Antitrust Watch (Philippines): The Philippine Competition Commission is warning rice traders to make independent decisions after a ₱50-per-kilo ceiling on imported five-percent broken rice—urging traders to avoid sharing sensitive info like prices, quantities, and import volumes while it sets up a transparent compliance framework with the rice importers’ group. Food Policy (Philippines): The Philippine Chamber of Food Manufacturers pushes regulators toward science-based, practical rules with real consultation as nutrient profiling, front-of-pack labeling, and product registration proposals move forward. Rice Market Power (Philippines): Former House Speaker Martin Romualdez backs restoring National Food Authority powers to intervene in rice markets, citing price instability and warehouse congestion. Dining & Innovation (Global): South Africa’s dining scene is leaning into “culinary roots” and street-food couture, while a new limited-time ramen crossover in Manila signals how brands are using collaborations to drive foot traffic. Honey Supply Gap (Sri Lanka): Sri Lanka’s honey output is far below demand, with officials calling for modern training to scale beekeeping beyond small, fragmented producers.

EU Packaging Crackdown: Spain’s hospitality sector is bracing for an EU ban on single-use plastic condiment sachets (ketchup, mayo, vinegar, etc.), starting 12 August—forcing restaurants and bars to shift to refillable dispensers, reusable containers, or paper options. Food Safety Push: The Philippines’ Bureau of Plant Industry is seeking P1.5B to build food safety labs and expand rice quality testing, aiming to tighten compliance on contaminants, residues, and rice standards. Trade Rules Under Pressure: The Philippines urged APEC to resist “arbitrary” non-tariff measures and keep markets open, warning that such barriers are raising export costs for most countries. Rural Livelihoods: South Africa received 3.5M FMD vaccine doses from Argentina to curb an outbreak, while Saudi REEF says it has backed 92,000+ rural beneficiaries with SAR 2.4B since 2019. Market Demand Shift: Brazil’s food and beverage output rose 2.9% in March, with food (+2.7%) and drinks (+3.3%) leading growth.

Wage Pressure in the Philippines: Negros workers are bracing for another setback after Western Visayas’ wage board dismissed a bid for a P250 daily pay hike on a “technicality,” with unions calling it a dodge that blocks merit review. Fuel Shock: India’s diesel is nearing Rs 100 after a fourth hike in two weeks, as West Asia tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruption keep crude volatile. Food Security Risk: The UN FAO warns Hormuz instability could spark a global food price crisis within 6–12 months, tying shipping disruption to fertilizer and transport costs. Halal & Trade Push: Malaysia is leaning on its JAKIM-backed halal credibility while also pushing F&B exports at Thaifex Anuga Asia. Aquaculture Tech Investment: VentureTECH backs Pacton’s FishSpeak platform to scale AI/IoT farm management across ASEAN. UK Retail Expansion: Aldi asks Blackpool and Fylde coast shoppers to nominate locations for new stores, as it pours £370m into growth. Cold Chain & Processing: Worldbase promotes industrial freezer and cold-chain systems for 2026 buyers.

Eid Al-Adha Readiness: Kuwait’s Public Authority for Food and Nutrition says authorized slaughterhouses are fully prepared for the holiday, expecting a 15–20% jump to about 40,000 animals (from 32,000 last year) and targeting 13,000–15,000 head across the country’s facilities, with veterinary and field teams ready for the first-day peak. Food Safety for Special Diets: Qatar’s Ministry of Public Health ran a workshop with regulators and hospitals to strengthen oversight of gluten-free foods for coeliac patients, pushing better coordination and compliance. Tax Pressure on Staples: Bangladesh’s PRAN-RFL chief urged the upcoming budget to avoid new taxes on everyday food, warning costs will be passed to consumers. Trade and Supply Stability: China has renewed expired US beef facility listings, restoring access after a long licensing slowdown, while the Philippines faces renewed food-risk concerns tied to Hormuz-linked fuel and fertilizer shocks. Standards and Small Business Finance: Yemen approved 102 updated food-related standards, and its small/micro enterprise authority backed 1,787 projects with 1.804bn riyals.

Trade & Food Processing: India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal is set to visit Canada (May 25–27) with 150 industry leaders, aiming to revive talks on a free trade deal that could open opportunities in food processing alongside energy and critical minerals. Holiday Supply Watch: Ahead of Eid Al Adha, a kingdom says it has imported tens of thousands of livestock plus thousands of tonnes of chilled and frozen meat, with added veterinary oversight to protect food safety. Food Safety & Inputs: Bangladesh’s food minister urged more organic fertiliser use, warning that pesticide overuse is driving food-poisoning risks and hurting export access. Sustainability Push: UK-based 2 Sisters Food Group expanded its deforestation-free feed commitment and is shifting more poultry feed toward British-grown protein. Market Pressure: B.C. food and beverage manufacturers warn costs are rising faster than revenues and margins are being squeezed as retailers resist price increases. Food Security Risk: Pakistan’s wheat sector is in a fresh policy crisis, with officials moving to force traders to declare stocks amid fears of shortages and higher flour prices. Consumer Culture: Nescafé is rolling out a World Cup “Espresso Keg” for watch parties, built for up to 20 cups.

Direct-to-consumer price relief: Malaysia’s FAMA is pushing a three-day Jualan Agro MADANI Mega@PTKM Palong in Palong, aiming for 5,000 visitors and offering 10–30% savings by cutting out middlemen, with “happy hour” deals like chicken/veg/eggs as low as RM5 (vs RM20). Cruise demand holds up despite illness scares: Even after hantavirus deaths on the MV Hondius and norovirus on a British ship, cruise industry forecasts still point to a record 38.3 million ocean-ship passengers this year. Fuel-cost squeeze hits foodservice fast: Goa restaurants are shifting cooking methods—more tandoors and energy-efficient techniques—as commercial LPG prices near Rs 3,150 per cylinder and electricity bills rise, with West Asia shipping disruptions adding pressure. Livestock policy doubles down on tradition: Castilla-La Mancha’s Strategic Plan for Extensive Livestock Farming backs transhumance as both a cultural practice and a sustainability lever, alongside CAP payments and animal health support. Food security funding moves in the Philippines: GOCC subsidies jumped to P26.84B in Q1, with the National Irrigation Administration taking the biggest share and the National Food Authority also receiving major support. Energy reliability matters for food supply chains: Ghana’s ECG scheduled transformer upgrades at Batsonaa with phased outages affecting major food and beverage sites along Spintex Road.

Sustainable Farming Push: Malaysia’s Sultanate urged Cameron Highlands growers to cut pesticide use and shift toward smart, biological control methods, with Dutch expertise cited as a model for safer, higher-quality crops. Trade & Inputs: Malaysia and New Zealand pledged closer cooperation to manage fuel and food-supply uncertainty, including sharing know-how on fertilisers, dairy and grains and inviting NZ to MAHA 2026. Food Jobs Spotlight: Wales’ Food and Drink Skills programme teamed up with Expoverse Wales to showcase roles across production, sustainability, tech and logistics via an interactive careers platform. Africa Midstream Bottleneck: Leaders at the Africa CEO Forum in Kigali warned that smallholders are still trapped by weak cold storage, roads and transport, forcing low returns despite better seeds and inputs. Food Safety & Access: Singapore Food Agency fined a caterer after gastroenteritis linked to lapses, while Nigeria’s National Single Window hit 39,039 licence/permit submissions in eight weeks. Memorial Day Food Culture: Alaska’s Kodiak Crab Festival returns with more vendors and new “carnival-style” food offerings for the holiday weekend.

Food Safety & Regulation: The EPA is moving to roll back enforceable PFAS drinking-water standards, proposing a “comprehensive PFAS strategy” that would also extend compliance timelines for PFOA/PFOS—an immediate pressure point for utilities and food-adjacent public health planning. Supply Chain & Biosecurity: Iraq has temporarily suspended transit of live animals from Syria after foot-and-mouth disease reports, aiming to protect livestock and food security. Packaging & Recycling: The U.S. Plastics Pact is being urged to remove two polystyrene items from its “problematic” list, as an industry study argues expanded polystyrene transport and rigid polystyrene are recyclable today. Retail & Operations: Morrisons plans to shut just over 100 “loss-making” convenience stores, blaming cost increases tied to government policy choices. Industry Moves: Malaysia’s Mahsuri Food opened a new automated sauces facility in Seremban, while Pepper Lunch was named a Fast Casual “Movers & Shakers” brand.